ТОЗИ ТЕКСТ Е ПРЕВОД НА МОЯТА СТАТИЯ ” Гузен негоден бяга”, публикувана тук на 20 май 2009 г.
A guilty conscience is a self-accuser
“Bulgaria is very close to entering a period of recession according to the newest data by the National Statistical Institute about the Bulgarian Gross Domestic Product during the first trimester of 2009. Bulgaria’s economy is showing a decrease of 3.5% compared to the same period (January to March) last year. Such a dramatic decrease hadn’t been registered for 12 years. The only other occasion was the notorious “Jan-Videnov-Winter” of 1996/1997 (where thousands of people gathered in the streets to protest against the catastrophic conditions and severely declined quality of life, note of the translator). Even worse are the indices in almost any economic sector showing dramatic declines in investment, consumer goods, agricultural production and the industries. A minimal growth was registered in the service sector. The accumulated production in the first trimester this year amounts to 13,741 bn. BGN, which is 5 bn less than the period October to December 2008.”
This is a quote from the “Trud” newspaper on May 20th 2009. The feeling of concern in the face of the inevitable reality is reinforced by an interview given by the chairwoman of the National Statistical Institute Mariana Kozeva in the same issue of the newspaper. In the interview she is preparing us for the surrender of the authorities to the facts: there is a recession.
Such is also the “hint” of “24 chasa” newspaper on May 18th . Former vice-minister of finance Krasimir Katev is appealing to us in his article not be startled by the recession. The newspaper and Mariana Kozeva take this as an occasion to
inform us that “technically” the recession can be announced as a fact only after confirming the decline of the GDP for the second trimester running – and this could happen on June 10th.
The ant-hill has been hit and as always the ruling ones are going to rely on oblivion.
In September 2008 the minister of finance Oresharski daringly forecasted that the financial crisis in the USA would not affect us. At the same time Stanishev uttered the sentence that should have cost him his post by now, if we had real democracy: “there are no reasons to think that the economic growth in Bulgaria would collapse”.
The growth, obviously, has collapsed – at a 3.5 economic decline, coming in second in the EU only after Germany (where a
retreat from previously conquered economic heights can be afforded easily, plus in Germany no one would dare gloss over forecasts).
Stanishev’s self esteem does not collapse, though. There are people to hold it up.
On May 18th the premier, although putting in shades of something resembling concern about the situation, repeated his statement that Bulgaria was very well prepared. This statement from Cherven Bryag is reminiscent of his half-way acknowledgment for the presence of problems on March 14th, when he informed us that we had met well the “first wave” of the crisis (i.e. there is a crisis after all).
We’ll be waiting for the acknowledgement of the second wave then. Although “technically” it wouldn’t happen before the
elections for the Europarlament – allegedly there was no way before the statistics hit the stamp on the second trimester (regardless of the forecasted results, even now guaranteeing the official acknowledgement of the recession).
Starting with a quote let me finish with on a note of reminiscence about some of the semi-official organs’
titles issued this spring. Among these are “Japanese can envy our high growth” (“Trud” in a cheerful recollection about the last trimester of 2008) or “We are getting richer despite the crisis” (from “Standart”).
Obviously the propaganda-style ruling party is starting to run away from itself. In this case it is suitable to say to the running: a guilty conscience is a self-accuser (note of the translator: Bulgarian saying “a guilty one runs away on his own accord”).