Една статия на Хенри Кисинджър, който фантазира за възможен край на Руската агресия в Украйна при изтъргуване на украинско членство в НАТО срещу съгласие Киев да признае Крим за част от Русия, развълнува силно рашистите у нас и дори предизвика реакцията на кремълския говорител Песков. Статията заслужавала внимателно да бъде обсъдена, подхвърли той.
Киев светкавично отхвърли идеята на престарелия бивш държавен секретар на САЩ с намеци за неговата неадекватност по възрастови причини. Не е много “нежно” като реакция, но е разбираемо наелектризирано ехото, галванизирано повече от всякога след целенасочените опити на раZия да наказва през зимата с лишаване от отопление,осветление и вода милионите украинци, които още не е прогонила от домовете им с помощта на въздушния се терор.
Кисинджър е знаменит и именит, но съвсем не е изразител на преобладаващото мнение сред западните експерти. Пример за обратната и максимално твърда позиция дава в консервативния “Дейли Телеграф” военният анализатор Кон Кофлин.
Моят стар познайник от Бейрут, с когото не веднъж сме будували до зори в компанията на други военни кореспонденти, не изключва да настъпи внезапен срив в московското лидерство. Анализаторът допуска, че самият Путин може изведнъж да грохне под тежестта на фактите за пропадащата руска икономика и военните поражения в Украйна. Знак за това авторът вижда в отменената годишна пресконференция на руския президент – крайно необичайно за него пропускане на възможността да си прокара пропагандата.
Същевременно британският анализатор призовава военните престъпления на Русия на всяка цена да бъдат осъдени и на виновните да не им се размине.
Апропо, руски медии загадъчно вещаят важно съобщение, което Путин се готвел да направи през тази седмица.
Понеже статията в “Дейли Телеграф” далеч не се радва на такава гласност у нас, което е показателно за преобладаващите нагласи в българските медии, прилагам в оригинал текста.
With military defeat finally sinking in, the Russian president’s appetite for battle has begun to wane
15 December 2022 • 7:00am
It is a sure sign that all is not well at the court of King Vlad when the Russian despot has to cancel his annual press conference, which he has long regarded as one of the highlights of the Kremlin’s calendar.
Usually, Vladimir Putin’s festive get-together with the world’s media provides him with the perfect opportunity to showcase his achievements. With all the questions carefully vetted in advance to ensure he is not caught off guard, the marathon sessions, which have been known to run for four-and-a-half hours, allow him free rein to deliver a masterclass in disinformation.
In one of his more memorable performances in 2020, when he was questioned about claims that Russia’s security forces were behind the attempted murder of dissident Alexei Navalny, Putin breezily replied that if the Russians had really wanted him dead, then they would have “finished” the job. He was equally dismissive of suggestions that Russian hackers had interfered in the American electoral process, claiming the accusations had been made up by Moscow’s opponents “to hurt US-Russia relations”.
It is a great pity, after the episodes Putin has experienced in Ukraine, that this year’s event has been unexpectedly cancelled. It would have been fascinating to hear the Russian leader’s take on how his “special military operation” – his term for invading Ukraine – is progressing, or how the newly annexed territories of eastern Ukraine are enjoying life under Russian rule. Those areas, that is, that have not already been recaptured by the Ukrainians.
While no explanation has been forthcoming from the Kremlin as to why the press conference was cancelled, the general suspicion is that, given the numerous humiliating setbacks the Russians have suffered during their ten-month assault on Ukraine, Putin dare not risk making any public appearances, not even at a carefully choreographed event like his annual media show.
For, despite the vetting, Putin would still be expected to address a number of difficult issues, whether it is offering his condolences to the families of Russia’s estimated 100,000 combat casualties, or explaining why key strategic cities like Kherson are no longer under Russian control.
The Kremlin knows that not even its sophisticated propaganda outlets can conceal the fact that 2022 has been an unmitigated disaster for Putin and the Russian military, to the extent that the Russian people are now well aware of the defeats they have suffered, with the latest opinion polls showing that only one in four Russians now support this new “great patriotic war”.
Having run out of men and equipment (Putin earlier this week admitted the Russians were even struggling to provide clothing for front-line troops), the Russians have had to resort to using Iranian-made drones to target Ukraine’s infrastructure, which is about the only tactic left for the Kremlin to employ in its continued assault. The rest of the military cupboard is bare.
The effectiveness of the drone attacks, though, is becoming less potent by the day as the Ukrainians become more adept at intercepting them before they hit their targets. And the Ukrainians’ ability to defend themselves will soon be greatly enhanced with President Biden authorising the deployment of Patriot missile defence systems.
It isn’t just on the battlefield that Putin finds himself on the defensive. Whatever narratives his supporters across the world may conjure up, Western sanctions are having a debilitating impact on the Russian economy, while the Kremlin’s hopes that its finances would be buoyed by high oil prices have failed to materialise. Indeed, global oil prices have slumped as the industrialised nations face an economic downturn.
With Putin rapidly running out of options, there are suggestions that the Russian leader may be interested in negotiating an end to the hostilities.
A number of Western leaders, including Biden and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, have been pushing for a negotiated settlement. Some have suggested they could even be pressuring the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to open peace talks with Moscow. Turkey has certainly been lobbying Moscow and Kyiv to enter negotiations.
From Putin’s perspective, a new round of negotiations over the disputed Ukrainian territory would help ease some of his immediate troubles, which explains why he recently stated he is “open” to the idea.
But while any initiative that leads to ending the bloodshed is to be welcomed, it is vital that Western leaders do not fall into a trap of Putin’s making. Prior to invading Ukraine, Russia was involved in peace talks with Kyiv as part of the Minsk agreement, but little was achieved because of Moscow’s refusal to give up any of the territory it illegally occupied in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. Russia’s position remains the same today.
Moreover, any future peace settlement must address the numerous war crimes Putin’s forces have committed since the invasion. Talks aimed at ending the conflict might seem a good idea, but not if they mean letting the despot off the hook.